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Johns Hopkins Univ. Press

January 2009, Volume 20, Number 1

Democracy Assistance: Political vs. Developmental?
Thomas Carothers
Democracy-aid providers are moving away from one-size-fits-all strategies and are adapting their programs to diverse political contexts. Two distinct overall approaches to assisting democracy have emerged in response.

Can Cuba Change?

  1. Tensions in the Regime
    Eusebio Mujal-León
    Although the transfer of power from Fidel to Raúl has been relatively uneventful, potential divisions within the ruling elite, especially between the military and the Party, are likely to emerge before too long.

  2. Ferment in Civil Society
    Carl Gershman and Orlando Gutierrez
    The opposition within Cuba has become more diverse as well as more unified, and the regime, despite its enduring capacity for repression, is showing signs of underlying weakness.

Violence and the Rise of Open-Access Orders
Douglass C. North, John Joseph Wallis, and Barry R. Weingast
For most of history, a closed social order has seemed the most “natural” way to manage the problem of controlling the use of force. The rise of modern democracy can be understood only in the context of the transition to open-access orders.

Debating the Color Revolutions

  1. Getting Real About "Real Causes"
    Valerie Bunce and Sharon Wolchik
    Structure, agency, and process all are critical in explaining the uneven pattern of electoral change in postcommunist Europe and Eurasia.

  2. An Interrelated Wave
    Mark R. Beissinger
    Authoritarian weakness alone cannot explain why the mobilization process during the color revolutions assumed similar forms across varied contexts.

  3. Popular Autocrats
    Martin K. Dimitrov
    Levels of regime strength and links to the West help to explain authoritarian breakdown, but the ruler’s popularity also matters.

  4. Necessary Distinctions
    Charles H. Fairbanks, Jr.
    Western pressure can be decisive, but it is not always easy to forecast when and how it will be applied.

  5. What Are We Trying to Explain?
    Vitali Silitski
    Change may be caused more by the frailty of the regime than the strength of the opposition, but in such cases the outcome is often less democratic.

  6. A Reply to My Critics
    Lucan Way
    The color revolutions illustrate both the prevalence of diffusion and the potential limits of its impact on political change.

Hong Kong's Democrats Hold Their Own
Ming Sing
A decade after the handover of their city to China, Hong Kong’s “pandemocrats” remain able to stand their ground at the ballot box.

Is Democracy Possible?
Bruce Gilley
While the belief in democracy has spread around the world, it has begun to crumble in some of the West’s finest academic institutions.

Illiberal Resilience in Serbia
Timothy Edmunds
Serbia has become a country where political contention is vigorous, but illiberal forces have shown an ability to adapt to the new conditions.

Paraguay: The Unraveling of One-Party Rule
Diego Abente-Brun
Fernando Lugo’s victory in the 2008 presidential election ended 61 years of one-party rule in Paraguay. How did the Colorado Party lose power?

The Curious Case of Finland's Clean Politics
Darren C. Zook
The case of Finland challenges conventional thinking on clean politics. Can it serve as a model for its more corrupt counterparts?

Books in Review

  • Misreading Muslim History
    Abdou Filali-Ansary
    A review of The West and Islam: Religion and Political Thought in World History by Antony Black

Election Watch

  • Reports on recent elections in Azerbaijan, Belarus, the Czech Republic, Guinea-Bissau, Lithuania, the Maldives, Romania, Rwanda, Slovenia, Swaziland, Vanuatu, and Zambia.

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