While despotic Arab regimes may seem stable, change is brewing beneath the surface. A new era is emerging in which the state will be forced to retreat before a vibrant civil society.
About the Author
Laith Kubba, a native of Baghdad, is senior director for the Middle East and North Africa at the National Endowment for Democracy. From May 2005 to March 2006, he was chief press spokesperson for Iraq’s Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaffari.
Basic demographic and socioeconomic factors in Iran are favorable to democratization. The mullahs may hope to stave off democratic change by emulating the Chinese model, but this strategy is doomed…
Strategies based on transition pacts that reduce rulers' risks and cushion their retreat from total power may be the most promising route to democracy in the Arab world.
