Read the full essay here.
We know that a revolution’s success largely depends on the regular army’s response to it. But how will the military react to an uprising? Zoltan Barany argues that it is quite possible to make a highly educated guess, if not an outright prediction, about the generals’ response to a revolution if one knows enough about their army, the state it is supposed to serve, the society in which it exists, and the external environment that affects its actions. Barany’s essay gives analysts the tools—in the form of questions that they must ask and answer—that will enable them to provide the most informed assessment possible regarding the army’s likely response to a revolution and thus, ultimately, the probable fate of the revolution itself.