Resurrecting Sultanism

Strategies based on transition pacts that reduce rulers' risks and cushion their retreat from total power may be the most promising route to democracy in the Arab world.

After a decade of partial liberalization begun by the late King Hussein, freedoms are now being rolled back by an anxious regime.

Basic demographic and socioeconomic factors in Iran are favorable to democratization. The mullahs may hope to stave off democratic change by emulating the Chinese model, but this strategy is doomed…