Georgia’s opposition is facing a pivotal election. But it isn’t enough to win: They need to be prepared to move quickly, mobilize the public, and force the regime to concede.
By Giorgi Meladze and Srdja Popovic
October 2024
On Saturday, October 26, Georgia will face a defining moment. For the first time, the country will vote under a fully proportional-representation system. Opposition parties and civil society now have a real chance to challenge the ruling Georgian Dream party — but only if they can overcome the increasingly sophisticated tactics that the ruling party’s government, like other hybrid regimes, uses to cling to power.
This election is a pivotal test. As the country stands at a crossroads between democracy and entrenched authoritarianism, voters will decide Georgia’s fate. With more than 70 percent of the country’s nearly 3.5 million eligible voters expected to cast ballots, every vote will count. There are nearly 3,000 polling stations across Georgia’s 79 electoral districts, with more than 50,000 members of the election commission overseeing the process. At each polling station, there will be six political-party appointees observing the vote. Election monitoring will likewise be extensive, with 49 local and 21 international organizations set to observe, including the OSCE and National Democratic Institute. Still, fears that Georgian Dream will manipulate the outcome are high.
Right now polls project Georgian Dream to win a third of the vote and 57 seats in the 150-seat unicameral Parliament, followed by the United National Movement–led Strength Is in Unity coalition with 19 percent and 33 seats; the Coalition for Change with 13 percent and 22 seats; the Strong Georgia party with 12 percent and 20 seats; and For Georgia with 11 percent and 18 seats. Other parties are below the threshold to obtain seats.
These numbers may not tell the full story. The ruling party’s control of the media, paired with voter-intimidation tactics, raises serious concerns. Public distrust in the new electronic-voting system — expressed by 70 percent of Georgians — adds to the uncertainty. Georgia, once a beacon of democratic hope in the post-Soviet world, now finds itself trapped in the grip of an increasingly authoritarian government. In a study by the Center for Applied Nonviolent Actions and Strategies, a majority of those surveyed expected “that the [Georgian Dream] government will use all possible means to falsify elections.” The ruling party’s tactics may be less blatant than in Venezuela, but its subtle manipulation — intimidating state employees, buying votes with prisoner pardons, restricting media access — presents a serious threat to the democratic process.
The Authoritarian Playbook
Authoritarian regimes have become increasingly adept at keeping power. Some methods are crude: In Zimbabwe’s 2023 general election, the ruling party implemented a fraudulent voting system by listing opposition candidates twice, or even three times, on ballots and succeeded in splitting the opposition to secure victory.
Other authoritarian governments employ more sophisticated techniques. Gerrymandering, for example, has been a cornerstone of Hungary’s illiberal democracy. By redrawing electoral boundaries, ruling parties can disproportionately inflate their parliamentary seats without increased popular support. This is one of the tactics that Hungary’s Viktor Orbán used to secure a supermajority in Parliament with less than half the popular vote.
Modern regimes have also embraced new tools of manipulation: mass online trolling, misinformation, and deepfakes. Russia’s “Doppelganger” operation targeted Georgia in an attempt to discredit the mass protests that swept the country in 2023 and 2024. This effort, which has continued to evolve, recently sought to dampen U.S. support for the Georgian protests by sowing misinformation among U.S. audiences. In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan used AI-doctored videos to discredit his opponents in 2023, broadcasting fake clips to millions at his campaign rallies. Georgia’s opposition should expect similar tactics. They must prepare for a wave of voter intimidation, administrative coercion, and attempts to manipulate the new voting system.
How to Overcome Election Fraud
While authoritarian regimes continue to innovate, opposition movements can learn from successful transitions elsewhere. Georgia’s opposition might find inspiration in the experiences of Serbia in 2000 and Poland in 2023, which offer blueprints for overcoming election fraud.
Here are four critical elements to consider.
1.) Opposition unity. A divided opposition plays into the hands of authoritarian leaders. In Georgia, it’s unlikely that opposition parties will unite under one banner, but they could follow Poland’s example. In 2023, Poland’s opposition ran in three coalitions, offering a diverse range of choices for voters while still cooperating to form a postelection majority. This model allowed the opposition to outnumber the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party.
2.) Mass turnout. Authoritarians thrive on voter apathy. High turnout is critical, especially in opposition strongholds. Poland’s record-breaking 8 percent voter turnout in 2023, led by urban youth, helped defeat PiS despite the ruling party’s dominance over state media. In contrast, low turnout in urban areas in Slovakia allowed pro-Russian, EU-skeptic parties to win. For Georgia’s opposition, mobilizing voters will be essential.
3.) Effective election monitoring. Documenting fraud is vital. Local and international monitors must be prepared to track violations and record final tallies. Photographic evidence of vote counts can serve as critical proof for challenging fraudulent results. Most recently, in 2023, photographic evidence of ballots was vital in making people aware of election results in Guatemala and Nigeria.
4.) Nonpartisan movements. Nonpartisan groups organizing around the election energize voters and hold power accountable. These efforts sometimes have a greater credibility with independent voters and less politically active parts of the population than partisan groups. This also allows them to recruit a wider base of the public, enhancing the strength of the movement. In Georgia, grassroots movements are mobilizing citizens, and they must continue. Nonpartisan efforts have proven effective in resisting both dictatorships and fledgling authoritarian regimes in Serbia (2000), Georgia (2003), Ukraine (2004), and Armenia (2018).
The Battle Ahead
Georgia’s opposition must be prepared to act quickly. When it comes to combating election fraud, timing is everything. Rapid documentation and communication of fraud can galvanize public support and spark a movement for change. In countries such as Serbia, Georgia, and Ukraine, rapid responses to fraudulent elections sparked mass mobilizations that led to political change. In contrast, delayed action, as in Venezuela this summer, has allowed regimes to tighten their grip on power despite overwhelming evidence of electoral fraud. For Georgia’s opposition, the first 24 hours after the election will be critical.
To challenge election fraud effectively, Georgia’s opposition must be poised, documenting violations in real time and confronting them head-on before the ruling party can solidify its hold on power. Drawing from the successful strategies used in Serbia’s 2000 elections and Georgia’s own 2003 Rose Revolution, opposition forces must gather extensive evidence and use social media to broadcast credible results before manipulation can take root.
The lessons from Venezuela’s recent election saga, where President Nicolás Maduro’s regime outright ignored published results showing a two-to-one opposition victory, are stark. Proof of fraud alone is not enough. Venezuela’s opposition had concrete evidence — a tally of 80 percent of the vote showed a clear opposition win — but the regime dismissed it and declared victory. This underscores a critical point: When facing modern autocrats, victory often requires more than winning elections and proving the results legally. The people may need to force those in power to concede.
Mass protests and legal challenges can put pressure on authoritarian regimes, but they require careful planning and disciplined, nonviolent leadership. Winning the vote is just the first step. Maintaining control in the crucial postelection period is the real test. Without strategic, peaceful mobilization and public engagement, the opposition risks losing momentum and plunging the country into chaos. Victory must be defended by the people.
A comprehensive strategy must involve several components.
First, platforms that provide transparency are critical. Whether through searchable databases, websites, or physical spaces, these platforms must present authentic election results to the public. This allows the electorate to verify the tallies and lends credibility to the numbers presented by the opposition.
The opposition must also have teams ready to analyze and expose electoral manipulation and fraud by tracking polling-station results and documenting altered vote counts. Legal challenges, backed by sound evidence, can contest fraudulent outcomes through official channels.
But legal strategies alone are insufficient. The opposition must target institutions where defending accurate election results will be decisive, such as electoral commissions, courts, and media outlets that shape public opinion.
Mobilizing the population will be essential. Instead of relying solely on protests, however, history shows that noncooperation tactics — strikes, boycotts, and mass “stay-outs” — are often more effective. That was the case in Serbia, where Slobodan Milošević’s blatant attempt to steal elections in September 2000 was immediately met with protests, general strikes, and nationwide civic disobedience, eventually forcing him to concede within just eight days. In Georgia, when Eduard Shevardnadze tried to steal November 2003 parliamentary elections, activists maintained discipline for days, biding their time for the perfect moment to act. Such forms of resistance disrupt the state’s functioning and create pressure points that force the regime to confront its illegitimacy.
International support, too, will be crucial. Mobilizing the global community can exert pressure on the regime to respect the will of the people. If a majority of Georgian voters choose the European path, the EU has a duty to do everything in its power for their will to be respected. Together, coordinated domestic and international efforts could tip the scales in favor of Georgia’s democratic future.
Georgia is facing a pivotal moment. The opposition has a chance to restore democracy. But it must be united, vigilant, and strategic. With mass turnout, effective monitoring, and rapid response, the opposition can prevent another stolen election. The future of Georgia — and its democratic path — depends on it.
Giorgi Meladze is associate professor at Ilia State University School of Law in Tbilisi, Georgia. Srdja Popovic is founder of the Center for Applied Nonviolent Action and Strategies, lecturer at Colorado College and the University of Virginia, and author of Blueprint for Revolution: How to Use Rice Pudding, Lego Men, and Other Nonviolent Techniques to Galvanize Communities, Overthrow Dictators, or Simply Change the World (2015).
Copyright © 2024 National Endowment for Democracy
Image credit: Giorgi Arjevanidze/AFP via Getty Images
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