The ANC lost its majority for the first time, but populist forces were held at bay.
October 2024
This essay is part of a package on the elections that mattered most in 2024.
South Africa’s May 2024 general election was a watershed moment for the country’s post-apartheid democracy. For the first time since the transition to nonracial rule in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC), the liberation party, is in a minority position in national politics. A party that once held a commanding electoral majority of 70 percent won just 40 percent this year, forcing it to enter into a Government of National Unity with the center-right Democratic Alliance, the Inkatha Freedom Party, and several other smaller groups.
In many respects, this election has fortified South Africa’s democratic resilience. First, it was unequivocally free and fair. Campaigns, voting, and election processing were routine and transparent, with the country’s Electoral Commission performing commendably. President Cyril Ramaphosa gracefully acknowledged the disappointing outcome, and with a sole exception, all parties recognized the election’s integrity.
Second, the outcome was a further rebuke of the capture and personalization of government as well as deteriorating governance. Since the 2018 ouster of ANC president Jacob Zuma and much of his faction, his successor, Ramaphosa, has stressed a return to more accountable and effective governance. A judicial commission found that Zuma’s administration had cultivated widespread crony networks that siphoned billions in public contracts. Ramaphosa has sought to restore faith in the ANC to govern transparently and address key problems of employment, inequality, and public services.
Third, illiberal populists did not surge. The Economic Freedom Fighters, whose proposals include sweeping nationalizations and land seizures, won around 10 percent of the vote, while Zuma’s new party, the ethnic-populist uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), whose charter calls for setting aside the constitution and supporters have engaged in political violence, registered an impressive 14.6 percent. Yet the combined electoral strength of these parties — about a quarter of voters — suggests the populist tendency is modest right now.
The commitment of ANC leaders to the procedures and norms of competitive democracy is notable. The achievements of this election cycle, however, do not suggest complacency about democracy in South Africa. Over the last decade, Afrobarometer polling shows that support for democracy has dropped from 72 percent to 43 percent, and satisfaction with democratic performance has plummeted from 60 percent to just 25 percent. Economic growth has slowed to a crawl, unemployment has risen, public services have eroded, and deep-seated inequalities among races and regions have persisted. These factors pose formidable challenges to the country’s democratic future.
Peter M. Lewis is Dr. Warren Weinstein Associate Professor of African Studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), where he also serves as director of the African Studies Program. Most recently, he is coeditor (with John W. Harbeson) of Coping with Crisis in African States (2016).
Copyright © 2024 National Endowment for Democracy
Image credit: Sharon Seretlo/Gallo Images via Getty Images
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FURTHER READING |
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The Long Decline of South Africa’s ANC |
South Africa Has Entered a New EraThe African National Congress can no longer call all the shots, and opposition parties will have more sway. Will this lead to a more inclusive democracy or gridlock and division? |
Africa’s Leaders for LifeAlexander Noyes and John Reece |