Herbert Kickl and his far-right allies have never hidden their contempt for democratic norms, and they are rising in the polls. But those who want to preserve Austria’s democracy may have one last chance.
February 2025
Many Austrians assumed Herbert Kickl would be their next chancellor. Last month the long-ruling conservative Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) announced that it was ready to enter negotiations as the junior partner to Kickl’s far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ). The dealmaking would have catapulted Kickl to be the country’s first far-right chancellor since World War II. But after a month of talks, Kickl informed Austrian president Alexander Van der Bellen on February 12 that the FPÖ was unable to reach an agreement with the ÖVP. The setback was unexpected — and perhaps temporary, with snap elections likely in the near future and the FPÖ still leading the polls. Kickl clearly believes he is in a position of strength and is content to hold out for a better deal. But for now, it gives Austria’s mainstream parties what may be a last chance to prevent Kickl’s rise to power.
The ÖVP rejected FPÖ’s final offer because it was a clear expression of the far-right party’s unwillingness to compromise. The FPÖ demanded almost all key government positions, which would have had them keeping responsibility for European policy, media freedom, and the rule of law in the chancellery, while nominating the ministers of finance and the interior. This was surprising: West European far-right parties usually moderate some of their positions when an opportunity to take power arises. Kickl and his FPÖ, however, were likely emboldened by the fact that, despite their brash plans, they are only growing in popularity.
Unlike many aspiring authoritarians, Kickl and his party have never hidden their contempt for democratic norms and principles, nor their plans to undermine them. During the September 2024 parliamentary-election campaign, in which the FPÖ came in first with 28.9 percent of the vote, Kickl portrayed himself as a Volkskanzler (“people’s chancellor”), a term used by the Nazis to describe Adolf Hitler. Kickl also promised, if elected, to make Austria a “fortress” and emulate Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán, who has turned Hungary into an electoral autocracy. Such undemocratic rhetoric is hardly new. In the past, Kickl and his FPÖ allies have often vilified their opponents as “people’s traitors,” while lobbing attacks on the Austrian judiciary for its supposed bias and ineffectiveness.
Kickl and FPÖ officials recently announced what to expect if they come to power. Independent media would likely be their first victims. The Austrian public broadcaster, known as the ORF, is a key information source for Austrians; Kickl calls it the Organisierte Regierungs-Fake-News (“Organized Government Fake News”), a play on its acronym, and would plan to sideline it by packing its management with loyalists, drastically cutting its budget, and purging it of critical journalists. Tough times would also be ahead for Austrian private media. FPÖ secretary-general Christian Hafenecker threatened to cut state media funding and public advertising for critical private media, which amounted to 118.5 million euros in 2023. Instead, the FPÖ-owned media, such as FPÖ TV, and other friendly press would be favored.
Other elements of democracy would be at risk as well. With several judicial posts soon to be vacant, the FPÖ would be able to pack the courts with its ideological allies. Moreover, in its 2024 election program, the FPÖ has pledged to strip individuals of their Austrian citizenship if they have “committed crime, abused the welfare state or disrespected our country and people.” In addition, civil society organizations working on gender and minority rights would see their public funds dry up.
Why Is Kickl Winning?
There are several factors responsible for Kickl and the FPÖ’s success.
First, the choice of strategy. Kickl and the FPÖ have a clear story to tell: National identity and security are threatened by immigration, foremostly from Muslim-majority countries. The far right presents this narrative confidently, using concrete examples and slogans that are understandable to voters, describing immigrants as “knife attackers” or immigration as a “population exchange.” This is accompanied by political messaging that only “the people’s chancellor” is capable of protecting the country from these existential threats.
Political psychology teaches us that a sense of shared fate and a commitment to a group that is perceived to be under threat can powerfully color people’s views. This is particularly true for national identity, which remains among the most important sources of group identity, cherished and valued by vast majorities across the educational and political spectrum. To successfully counter the far right’s messaging, prodemocracy forces need to develop their own emotionally compelling counternarrative, something Austrian mainstream parties have failed to do. In countries where prodemocracy actors have recognized this necessity, such as Poland, they have been more successful. As I was told in an interview with Dorota Łoboda, MP and spokesperson for Poland’s Civic Coalition parliamentary group, an emotional, nationalistic counternarrative was a strategic decision that proved essential for the electoral mobilization that defeated the far-right Law and Justice (PiS) party in 2023.
Second, Kickl’s pragmatism and willingness to learn from other illiberal leaders has aided his cause. His threat-driven strategy is hardly original. The pages seem to have been borrowed from Viktor Orbán’s playbook. This should come as no surprise: A close exchange of strategies and tactics, coupled with a great willingness to learn from each other, is one of the main characteristics of the current generation of far-right and illiberal politicians.
Third, the established parties’ attempt to portray Kickl and the FPÖ as a danger to democracy doesn’t resonate with voters. The messaging proved to be too abstract for many Austrians, even as Kickl and the FPÖ have displayed open contempt for democratic norms. Most Austrians simply cannot fathom that their democracy could die. There is no collective memory of authoritarianism in Austria’s recent history, as there is, for example, in South Korea or Brazil, where this fact contributed to an immediate and strong pushback against threats to democracy.
To raise awareness of the danger that democracy faces, prodemocracy actors can use concrete examples where aspiring authoritarians have subverted democracy. This is exactly what Israeli prodemocracy forces did in 2023 when they protested the government’s judicial reform. Organizers of the protests told me in interviews that they shared with the public how the Polish and Hungarian governments had led similar attacks on the judiciary. This helped average Israelis grasp the imminent threat to their democracy and mobilize to defend it. Their ability to label the threats in terms that seemed plausible to the general public led to the biggest protests in Israel’s history, which ultimately pressured the Supreme Court to strike down the reform. Austria’s mainstream parties have failed to explain to everyday citizens what Kickl’s election campaign promises would mean for them.
What is happening in Austria is likely to have repercussions beyond the country’s borders. Other West European far-right parties, especially the Alternative for Germany, are watching closely to see how this Austrian drama will play out. If the FPÖ wins a landslide victory in the next election, giving it the chance to demand the full implementation of its illiberal agenda, the lesson will be that the far right’s path to the highest echelons of power need not be paved with moderation and compromise. That is, unless those who value Austrian democracy learn their own valuable lessons first.
Filip Milačić is visiting professor at the Central European University (CEU) and research affiliate at the CEU’s Democracy Institute. He is the author of Stateness and Democratic Consolidation: Lessons from Former Yugoslavia (2022).
Copyright © 2025 National Endowment for Democracy
Image credit: ALEX HALADA/AFP via Getty Images
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