January 2022, Volume 33, Issue 1
Exchange: Why the Future Cannot Be Predicted
Christian Welzel’s case for a democratic future is based on the mistaken notion that opinion surveys can see the future. It is no more true today than it ever was.
Supplemental Materials
January 2022, Volume 33, Issue 1
Exchange: Why the Future Is (Still) Democratic
The “democratic deconsolidation” thesis is overblown. Emancipative values continue to spread worldwide, and clearly point to brighter democratic days ahead.
April 2021, Volume 32, Issue 2
Why the Future Is Democratic
The swelling pessimism about democracy’s future is unwarranted. Values focused on human freedom are spreading throughout the world, and suggest that the future of self-government is actually quite bright.
January 2020, Volume 31, Issue 1
The Puzzle of Authoritarian Legitimacy
Why do East and Southeast Asia’s autocracies enjoy more support from their publics than do the region’s democracies?
October 2019, Volume 30, Issue 4
Sudan’s Uprising: The Fall of a Dictator
Amid mass protests, the personalist autocracy of longtime Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir fell to an April 2019 coup. With the country now being governed by a council composed of both opposition leaders and powerful security-service coupmakers, prospects for democratization remain uncertain.
January 2019, Volume 30, Issue 1
The Fates Of Third-Wave Democracies
Since their transitions, the democracies of the “third wave” have followed a range of trajectories beyond simple survival or breakdown. Many have stagnated at low levels of democracy and some have suffered democratic erosion, but there also have been cases of democratic deepening against the odds.
July 2018, Volume 29, Issue 3
Modernization and Authoritarianism
Embracing a new model of capitalist authoritarianism, a number of nondemocratic regimes have made startling gains in state capacity, posing a new challenge to the appeal and advance of liberal democracy.
July 2018, Volume 29, Issue 3
Mass Protests and the Military
When nonviolent mass protests occur under authoritarian regimes, the military plays a key role in determining the outcome: the hardening of the dictatorship, a new authoritarian regime, or a transition to democracy.
January 2018, Volume 29, Issue 1
The Rise of Kleptocracy: Autocrats versus Activists in Africa
Central African autocrats are using their stolen money to outmaneuver their opponents and deflect international criticism.
October 2017, Volume 28, Issue 4
How Much Democratic Backsliding?
Democracy’s retreat is real, yet alarmist reports of a global demise or crisis of democracy are not warranted.
April 2017, Volume 28, Issue 2
The 2016 U.S. Election: Can Democracy Survive the Internet?
Traditional intermediary institutions such as parties and the legacy media are not what they once were, and they are not coming back. What are the implications of new social media and digital-campaign techniques?
July 2016, Volume 27, Issue 3
The Struggle Over Term Limits in Africa: A New Look at the Evidence
There is strong empirical evidence to support the correlation between effective term limits and the quality of democracy.
January 2016, Volume 27, Issue 1
On Democratic Backsliding
Old-fashioned military coups and blatant election-day fraud are becoming mercifully rarer these days, but other, subtler forms of democratic regression are a growing problem that demands more attention.
January 2016, Volume 27, Issue 1
The Quest for Good Governance: Learning from Virtuous Circles
Are the “virtuous circles” crucial to good governance always the product of long-term developments under unique historical circumstances, or can they be started or accelerated by wise policies?
January 2016, Volume 27, Issue 1
The Quest for Good Governance: Taiwan’s Fight Against Corruption
Bold leadership from people in key posts can effectively promote public integrity, but they must be ready to accept tenures that are stormy and short.
July 2015, Volume 26, Issue 3
Europe and Azerbaijan: The End of Shame
A few years ago, Europe’s most important intergovernmental human-rights institution, the Council of Europe, crossed over to the dark side. Like Dorian Gray, the dandy in Oscar Wilde’s story of moral decay, it sold its soul. And as with Dorian Gray, who retained his good looks, the inner decay of the Council of Europe remains hidden from view.
July 2015, Volume 26, Issue 3
Nigeria’s Hopeful Election
In a surprising turn of events, opposition candidate Muhammadu Buhari was able to outpoll incumbent Goodluck Jonathan—and the latter peacefully acknowledged his defeat.
April 2015, Volume 26, Issue 2
The Authoritarian Resurgence: Autocratic Legalism in Venezuela
Why do some hybrid regimes remain stable over time, while others become more authoritarian? Venezuela’s autocratic turn has been driven by the ruling party’s declining electoral fortunes and by a foreign policy that has shielded it from international scrutiny.
October 2014, Volume 25, Issue 4
India’s Watershed Vote: Behind Modi’s Victory
India’s sixteenth general election ushered in a new era in the country’s politics, putting Narendra Modi and the BJP firmly in charge. What accounts for the sharp swing away from the long-dominant Congress party?
April 2014, Volume 25, Issue 2
Ethnic Power Sharing: Three Big Problems
In severely divided societies, ethnic cleavages tend to produce ethnic parties and ethnic voting. Power-sharing institutions can ameliorate this problem, but attempts to establish such institutions, whether based on a consociational or a centripetal model, face formidable difficulties.